Germany set to toughen China stance under new coalition

Frederick Kliem is research fellow and lecturer at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies and the Center for Multilateralism Studies in Singapore.

Last Sunday’s elections were a watershed moment for Germany’s political culture that will most likely halt its recent accentuation of the military but bring about a more honest debate on China.

While it remains unclear who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor, Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) has the upper hand. The narrow loss suffered by Armin Laschet, leader of Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), means that he is still in the race to form a new government.

In Germany’s parliamentary democracy, voting is only the first step. Coalition-building among party elites is what ultimately decides who governs the country and how.

This election signals the beginning of a new normal: a more fragmented political system where less voter loyalty means that the combined vote of the CDU and SPD is unlikely to exceed 50%. Henceforth, the Bundestag will consist of numerous parties within reach of 10%, making multiparty governing coalitions standard. Governments will be less stable and comparatively short-lived, and the chancellery less powerful.

The Greens and the classic-liberal Free Democratic Party significantly increased their vote shares to 14.8% and 11.5%, respectively, all but guaranteeing both parties a role in a new three-party government. The Greens and the FDP are now negotiating from a position of historic strength, and both will demand — and get — a hefty price for their support.

The Greens will want autonomy and authority on environment and energy policy, and will likely lead a climate, energy, environment superministry, and possibly foreign affairs. The FDP will want to control fiscal policy, with party leader Christian Lindner already flagging his interest in the important finance portfolio.

This will mean a change to Germany’s foreign and security policy. As Germany’s strongest supporter of the trans-Atlantic alliance NATO, the CDU and Merkel personally sees the Bundeswehr as a legitimate foreign policy instrument and has guided a gradual increase in the capabilities of the country’s armed forces.

An SPD-led government, especially with the deeply pacifist Greens, is bad news for traditional supporters of the trans-Atlantic alliance who welcome a larger German security footprint globally and increased defense spending in line with Germany’s NATO commitments.

But for those who want to see Germany take a stronger position when it comes to China — and that includes Washington — a three-party “traffic light” coalition may be the best possible outcome.

Notwithstanding criticism of Merkel’s failure to address pressing domestic issues, her foreign policy reputation is second to none after she successfully navigated Germany and Europe through exceptionally challenging crises. With Merkel all but monopolizing foreign policy, this has marginalized the Foreign Office.

On China, Merkel’s nonchalant and taciturn approach to the systemic and concrete challenges posed by Beijing caused much frustration.

At home, she was frequently criticized for her indifference toward human rights abuses and authoritarianism. In the U.S. and Europe, she was accused of prioritizing Germany’s economic relationship with Beijing without taking a stand on Chinese violations of international law, and of not showing sufficient support for Germany’s partners as new geopolitical fault lines emerged.

Merkel’s retirement will see the transfer of some power back to the coalition parties and the ministries. If Greens co-leader Annalena Baerbock becomes foreign minister, expect the Foreign Office to reassert itself with a strong green foreign policy profile.

Greens co-leader Annalena Baerbock, pictured on Sept. 26: the Greens will want autonomy and authority on environment and energy policy,

  © Reuters

This represents a unique chance to reassess Germany’s traditional China policy, and rethink how to reconcile Germany’s economic imperative, which is ill-suited to today’s geopolitical dynamic. The palpable global backlash against Beijing has increased the pressure on Berlin to clearly position itself by its allies’ side.

Continuing to kick the can down the road is not an option, lest events and challenges soon overtake Berlin’s capacity to manage them.

The new AUKUS trilateral security pact involving the U.S., the U.K. and Australia has not only put Germany in a difficult spot between the U.S. and France, its two most important allies, but will force Berlin to confront the question it least likes to ask: where to position Germany within great-power competition. So far, it has remained woefully silent.

Despite their ideological differences, both the Greens and the FDP advocate a stronger stance on China and Russia, with the Greens election manifesto identifying a “systemic rivalry” with Beijing, albeit de-emphasizing the military element.

In addition to advocating support for Hong Kong’s civil rights movement, the FDP manifesto backs a closer relationship with Taiwan and goes into extraordinary detail about it being a “successful democratic counterpart to the PRC,” albeit within the one-China framework, and emphasizes the need to protect the integrity of international law.

In the light of the center left’s pacifist base, Germany will not become a hawkish balancer of Chinese power. But a traffic light coalition government has an opportunity to align closer with Germany’s partners and work toward a united trans-Atlantic position on the challenges posed by Beijing.

Such a coalition would also be well-placed to accept some economic risks in order to promote a more principled and proactive China policy, a “human-rights-based foreign policy,” as the Greens call it.

Although Washington has historically been more comfortable with a CDU-led government, President Joe Biden may find a Scholz-led coalition unexpectedly cooperative on China.

Once the election dust has settled in Berlin, Washington should take the initiative and initiate a discussion on a better-aligned trans-Atlantic approach. Biden might be surprised by how responsive a new German government will be.